Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
○ Frontiers Media SA
Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution's content profile, based on 60 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.12% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Almansoori, N. M.; Razali, H.; Muzaffar, S. B.; Chabanne, D. B. H.; Natoli, A.; Almusallami, M.; Naser, H.; Khamis, A.; Al Harthi, F.; Aldhaheri, L. S. R.; Alaleeli, M. M. B.; Al Diwani, F. M.; Manlik, O.
Show abstract
The Socotra Cormorant (Phalacrocorax nigrogularis) is a threatened seabird endemic to the coastal areas of the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, two regions separated by the Strait of Hormuz. Conserving threatened species requires clear delineation of population boundaries and the evaluation of genetic diversity. However, information on population structure and genetic variation, necessary for such an assessment, is lacking for the Socotra Cormorants. In this study, we assessed population structure and genetic diversity of Socotra Cormorants using two contrasting genetic markers: (1) maternally inherited mtDNA cytochrome oxidase 1 (COI) and (2) a nuclear non-coding region, {beta}-fibrinogen intron 7 (FIB7). A total of 279 individuals were sampled from four colonies in the Arabian Gulf and one colony on Hasikiyah Island in the Arabian Sea. Findings based on COI-variation suggest that the Arabian Gulf colonies represent one large population with extensive gene flow between Gulf colonies--except for the most distant pair of colonies--but isolated from Hasikiyah in the Arabian Sea. COI-variation indicated significant differentiation between the colonies inside the Gulf and the Hasikiyah colony. This is consistent with the reported distribution patterns, and may reflect phylogeographic processes of the region. The Gulf population showed substantially lower COI-diversity, with significantly lower nucleotide and haplotype diversity compared to Hasikiyah. In contrast, FIB7 results indicated extensive connectivity among colonies, with no detectable population structure or significant differences between the Gulf population and Hasikiyah. This study presents the first characterization of population structure and genetic diversity of Socotra Cormorants. The low genetic diversity coupled with relative isolation of the Gulf Socotra Cormorants raises conservation concerns regarding their long-term viability by potentially reducing fitness and eroding their evolutionary capacity to adapt to environmental change. LAY SUMMARYO_LIThe Socotra Cormorant is a threatened seabird found in the Arabian Gulf and Arabian Sea, but little was previously known about its population structure and genetic diversity. C_LIO_LIWe analyzed 279 birds from five nesting colonies (4 in the Gulf and 1 in the Arabian Sea), using two genetic markers to assess population connectivity and variation. C_LIO_LIWe found that the Socotra cormorants inside the Gulf appear to form a large, genetically isolated population with relatively low genetic diversity. C_LIO_LIThis is the first study that evaluates population structure and genetic diversity of this endangered seabird. C_LIO_LIThis is important information for the conservation of the Gulf Socotra cormorants because low genetic diversity, coupled with relative isolation, is associated with reduced fitness, and suggests that they may have a lower chance to adapt to environmental changes. C_LI
Joshi, C. H.; Dornhaus, A.
Show abstract
Finding resources for the colony is one of the most difficult and risky tasks for a social insect worker. A worker on a foraging trip can face a number of challenges, including interference from other individuals, her own errors, and environmental disturbances. Collectively, colonies may use a variety of strategies to minimize the impact of such perturbations on the foraging process. Here, we investigated how individual Solenopsis xyloni ant workers react to perturbation of an established pheromone trail. We trained foragers from colonies in the field to either a low or high concentration sucrose solution in a feeder on a T-maze setup, then replaced a section of floor covering, removing a section of the pheromone trail previously laid. We found that while ants made correct choices on the T-maze when the trail was intact, their choices did not differ from chance when the trail was absent, indicating strong reliance on a pheromone trail (and not, for example, memory) to return to the resource. Moreover, when the trail was absent, we found that a majority of ants abandoned the resource, and that even the ants that were able to reach the resource did not repair the perturbed trail. However, with a high-quality resource, more ants persisted in attempting to reach it (instead of abandoning). We interpret these responses in the framework of robustness mechanisms discussed in systems biology. Our study thus links individual and collective responses to perturbations, and provides an empirical example of how information use interacts with system robustness. Statements and declarationsThe authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.
Aumont, C.; Dhakad, P.; Alff, D. M.; McMahon, D. P.; Hanson, M. A.
Show abstract
Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are key defence molecules of the innate immune system of plants and animals. Understanding the evolutionary origins of AMPs can help to explain how immune systems acquire novelty and vary in their defensive capabilities. However, AMPs evolve rapidly, and so the origins of similar AMPs across organisms is often unclear. Furthermore, false negatives due to low search sensitivity are common and can hinder confident annotations about true absences. Due to these difficulties, understanding whether similar AMP genes found in diverse organisms represent ancestral molecules or evolutionary novelties has been challenging. In this report, we present evidence of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) of the antifungal peptide gene Drosomycin across insects. We show that in Diptera, the presence of Drosomycin is restricted to the Melanogaster group and additionally the distant relative Drosophila busckii. We go on to recover Drosomycin genes in cockroaches (Blattodea), mantises (Mantodea), one katydid (Orthoptera), various beetles (Coleoptera), and a recently acquired pseudogenized Drosomycin locus in Liposcelis booklice (Psocodea), but no other insects. Explaining this diversity through shared ancestry requires at least 50 independent loss events, or just seven HGT events. Previous studies have suggested that similar AMPs found across divergent species reflect conservation from a common ancestor, or due to their small size, that they arose via convergent evolution resulting from pathogen-imposed selection. Our findings suggest horizontal gene transfer can be responsible for the presence of some AMP genes found scattered across the tree of life. By presenting a mechanism through which immune systems can acquire novelty, our study also suggests a possible explanation for certain lineage-specific competencies for defence against infectious disease. While loss of AMP genes is common in certain lineages, here we suggest gain of AMPs can occur just as suddenly.
Nogueira, B. R.; Leon-Alvarado, O. D.; Khadempour, L.
Show abstract
Honeypot ants represent an example of convergent evolution, where a group of workers specialized in storing liquid food in their crops (i.e., stomach) has independently evolved multiple times across different ant genera. While seasonal resource scarcity and arid conditions are thought to drive the evolution of repletism, the role of environmental variables in this process has not been tested. With this is mind, species ensemble models were computed to assess suitability and richness areas, and the importance of predictors. Predictor importance was compared between genera and groups occupying a similar geographical area. Niche overlap and similarity between honeypot ant species were also evaluated to determine whether they occupy similar environmental spaces. Similarity was mainly found within genera, and Leptomyrmex and Myrmecocystus showed striking niche differences. Overall, Leptomyrmex distribution was mainly influenced by atmospheric bioclimatic variables like precipitation and temperature, while Myrmecocystus had soil bioclimatic variables as the most important predictors for their current distribution. Our results indicate that honeypot ants species currently do not occupy the same environmental space, and are not experiencing the same contemporary environmental stressors. While our results suggest that contemporary environmental factors cannot explain the convergence of honeypot ants, future research will examine past climatic conditions along with investigations into the ant genomes to understand more about the causes and consequences of the convergence.
Menon, T.; Tyagi, A.; Managave, S.; Ramakrishnan, U.; Srinivasan, U.
Show abstract
Migration is a well-described behavioural strategy that allows species to track variation in resources and climatic conditions by moving in response to seasonality. A common form is elevational migration, an annual short-distance movement undertaken by many mountain bird species globally. While studies show that the timing of migration may relate to food availability, the mechanisms determining which species migrate remain unclear. Our study investigated if the degree of dietary specialization explains why some high-elevation bird species in seasonal environments migrate downslope for the winter while others remain resident at high altitudes despite the apparent scarcity of their preferred food resources. We mist-netted birds along a 2300-m elevational gradient in the Eastern Himalaya and collected blood and faecal samples from 261 individual birds belonging to 18 species of high-elevation residents (ten) and elevational migrants (eight) in their breeding and wintering ranges. Using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in whole blood and faecal DNA metabarcoding, we compared their seasonal trophic levels and dietary niches. Nitrogen isotope ratios showed that residents had a substantially lower trophic position in the winter compared to summer (-0.35 [-0.52, -0.17]), whereas migrants had a slightly higher trophic position in the winter (0.15 [-0.02, 0.32]). This trophic shift in residents was likely due to a decrease in insectivory and an increase in frugivory in the winter. The frequency of key insect orders (Lepidoptera, Hemiptera, and Coleoptera) declined by 20-35% in their winter diets alongside an increase in fruit, particularly from the family Polygonaceae (0.33 [0.18, 0.46]). Additionally, compared with residents, migrants showed greater overlap in their dietary niches between summer and winter (98% vs 80%). Because arthropod abundances in the Himalayas peak at high elevations in the summer and decline in the winter, we suggest that elevational migrants are likely dietary specialists that track resources, while high-elevation residents are dietary generalists that supplement their winter diet with fruit and nectar because of the scarcity of arthropods. These findings indicate that a species dietary specialization is linked to its migratory behaviour, providing a potential mechanistic explanation for how different species solve the challenge of seasonal resource limitation.
Lucan, R. K.; Nicolaou, H.; Bartonicka, T.; Bachorec, E.; Salek, M.; Rerucha, S.; Jedlicka, P.; Erotokritou, E.; Horacek, I.
Show abstract
Peripheral island populations are often especially vulnerable to environmental change, yet they may also represent unique components of biodiversity. We assessed long-term population change in the Egyptian fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus) on Cyprus, the only insular and geographically isolated population of this pteropodid in Europe, and evaluated two non-exclusive explanations for its decline: roost disturbance and reduced food availability. We analysed roost counts from 21 underground sites monitored between 2005 and 2022 and modelled temporal trends in commercially produced fruits used by the species. The monitored population declined from c. 7200 to c. 1050 individuals, corresponding to an estimated decrease of 85.4%. The decline was steepest during 2005-2011, slowed during 2012-2017, and was followed by partial recovery in 2018-2022. Colonies in easily accessible roosts declined significantly faster than those in less accessible roosts, consistent with an important role of human disturbance. Fruit production showed strong long-term declines and multiple structural breaks clustered in the mid-2000s, coinciding with the most severe phase of population decline and a major drought period on Cyprus. The fate of the missing portion of the population remains uncertain. Although large-scale mortality cannot be excluded, there was no clear evidence of widespread starvation-related mortality, and emigration to nearby mainland areas remains a plausible but untested explanation. Overall, our results indicate that the collapse of this peripheral island population was most likely driven by a combination of roost disturbance and reduced food availability associated with climate-related environmental change, highlighting the urgent need for strict roost protection and measures to secure food and water resources.
Asmundsdottir, R. D.; Troche, G.; Olsen, J. V.; Martinez de Pinillos, M.; Martinon-Torres, M.; Schrader, S.; Welker, F.
Show abstract
Dental enamel, the hardest mineralised tissue in the human body, has proven to be an excellent source of ancient proteins, which have been found to survive within dental enamel for at least twenty million years. In archaeological and palaeontological contexts, the enamel proteome is generally considered to be rather small, consisting of about twelve proteins, most of which are unique to enamel. During amelogenesis these proteins undergo in vivo digestion by matrix metalloproteinase 20 (MMP20) and kallikrein 4 (KLK4) as well as serine phosphorylation by family with sequence similarity member 20-C (FAM20C) that alter their characteristics. Gaining knowledge of the previously understudied influence of amelogenesis on the archaeological human dental enamel proteome could benefit various palaeoproteomic analysis, especially in an human evolutionary context. Here we present archaeological dental enamel proteomes and explore protein cleavage patterns and sequence coverage to estimate the effects of in vivo digestion, as well as explore phosphorylation patterns. Additionally, we present a new marker based on phosphorylation to estimate genetic sex.
Piovesan, A.; Praz, C.; Voelkl, B.; Lanz, S.; Neumann, P.; Beaureapaire, A.
Show abstract
Pollinator populations are facing worldwide declines, underscoring conservation needs. Yet, conservation assessments still mostly rely on occurrence data, often derived from heterogeneous and opportunistic observations. While such data can inform on species presence and distribution, they may overlook important markers of population declines. This is particularly problematic for social species such as bumble bees, which typically exhibit low effective population sizes despite high abundance of workers observed in the field. Despite these putative pitfalls, the relationship between occurrence-based and genetic-based estimates remains largely unexplored in social bees. We here investigated spatio-temporal genetic patterns in five Swiss Bombus species representing contrasting population trajectories over the last century: B. humilis and B. sylvarum (stable), B. ruderatus (increasing), B. pomorum (regionally extinct), and B. veteranus (declining). Museum specimens collected between 1929 and 2023 were genotyped at 11 microsatellite loci to compare spatio-temporal fluctuations in genetic diversity and population structure with occurrence data. Overall, multilocus heterozygosity and allelic richness remained stable in all species during the time period investigated, indicating that the diverging population trends did not result in substantial variation of genetic diversity. In contrast, strong and significant shifts in allelic frequencies between time periods were detected in three species, suggesting recent immigration events. Isolation by distance was detected in the cold-adapted B. veteranus, while the extant warm-adapted species (B. humilis, B. sylvarum, B. ruderatus) showed high levels of gene flow between locations. In B. pomorum, increasing genetic homogenization was observed before extinction. Altogether, these findings show that genetic diversity indexes are not the most adapted tools to monitor conservation status of social bee populations, and that estimates of population structure such as allelic shifts may be more informative. Moreover, these results highlight the importance of monitoring metapopulation dynamics and ensuring connectivity among populations to facilitate gene flow and enable demographic rescue processes.
Lopes, F.; Gibbs, J. P.; Carrion, J.
Show abstract
The long-standing misconception that the Galapagos petrel (Pterodroma phaeopygia) and the Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis) were conspecific masked the severe vulnerability of the Galapagos population. By the time its distinct status was recognized, the Galapagos petrel was already in marked decline, primarily due to invasive predators. Consequently, sustained rodent control programs have been implemented on Santa Cruz Island. An unintentional one-year failure in rodent control provided a rare quasi-experimental opportunity to quantify the demographic consequences of the invasive black rat predator. During this year, hatching success declined by [~]35% and breeding success by [~]40% relative to long-term means (66% and 62%, respectively), representing a substantial reproductive collapse. Fledging success exhibited a comparatively modest decline (from a long-term mean of 94% to 86% in 2017), suggesting stage-specific vulnerability. These results support the hypothesis that invasive black rats primarily affect early reproductive stages through egg predation and predation on small chicks, while older chicks surpass a critical size threshold that reduces susceptibility. Across the remaining managed years, reproductive metrics exhibited great stability, demonstrating the petrels resilience against other environmental or climatic stressors. Our findings provide robust empirical evidence that invasive rodent control is the dominant driver of reproductive success in this endangered seabird. The quasi-experimental failure underscored both the effectiveness and the necessity of continuous predator management, highlighting the severe and immediate consequences of even short-term lapses.
Hendrix, J. G.; Ferraro, K. M.; Love, A. E.; Kusch, J. M.; Albrecht, D.; Leroux, S.; Webber, Q.; Vander Wal, E.
Show abstract
O_LINitrogen (N) is limiting for terrestrial herbivores, particularly over winter. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) have adapted to seasonal scarcity of N by accruing muscle mass during the growing season when N is more abundant. C_LIO_LINitrogen stored in muscle tissue is then relied upon during winter to compensate for dietary deficits. Once their diet shifts from N-rich vascular plants to N-poor lichen over winter, caribou can lose [~]30% of their muscle mass. As catabolized N is shed in urine on wintering grounds, caribou could act as elemental transport across seasons and landscapes. Furthermore, if deposited N is taken up by lichen or other winter forage, it might enrich the nitrogen-poor winter diet of caribou in the future. C_LIO_LIWe tested this potential transport via three steps. We analysed Cladonia spp. lichen and vascular plants upon which caribou forage across Fogo Island, Newfoundland, using %N content as our metric of forage quality. We then compared seasonal habitat selection responses to forage quality by caribou using integrated step selection analyses. In summer, caribou selected areas with higher vascular plant %N but did not select nor avoid Cladonia quality. In contrast, caribou selected sites with higher quality Cladonia in winter but responded neutrally to vascular plant quality. C_LIO_LIWe compared seasonal distributions of caribou to determine whether nitrogen consumed in summer and deposited in winter would occur in spatially discrete locations. Population-level kernel density estimates for summer and winter in this island herd were mostly non-overlapping, lending credence to the potential landscape effects of N transport. C_LIO_LIWhen viewed together with established seasonal changes in woodland caribou physiology, sociality, and forage preferences, the shifts in habitat selection and seasonal ranges we observe here could serve as an adaptive strategy for caribou to recycle N and mitigate winter nutrient scarcity. C_LI
Vieira, B.; Goncalves, D.; Oliveira, N.
Show abstract
Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are reshaping marine food webs, altering prey availability and affecting top predators. The European Shag (Gulosus aristotelis), a coastal demersal seabird, provides a valuable model for examining environmentally mediated dietary variation, given its trophic plasticity and capacity to adjust prey use according to local availability, while also allowing assessment of potential demographic consequences. This study investigated spatial and temporal variation in diet at two Portuguese colonies (Berlengas and Arrabida) between 2016 and 2024 and assessed long-term reproductive productivity at Berlengas. A total of 468 regurgitated pellets were analysed, and diet composition was quantified using the Index of Relative Importance (IRI). Generalised additive models were applied to assess environmental, spatial, and period-specific effects on diet composition, while reproductive productivity was modelled in relation to prey biomass. Diet variation was primarily explained by environmental predictors, including sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration, and zooplankton, whereas year per se had no significant effect, indicating environmentally mediated bottom-up effects. Spatial differences between colonies reflected contrasting prey field structures, and period-specific patterns suggested increased specialisation during breeding. Higher biomass of sandeels (Ammodytidae) was positively associated with reproductive output, whereas shifts toward lower-energy prey were associated with reduced productivity. These findings demonstrate that environmentally driven dietary change has measurable demographic consequences, underscoring the importance of bottom-up processes in shaping seabird population dynamics and informing conservation strategies under ongoing climate change.
Sciamma, G.; Fakan, E. P.; Hoey, A.
Show abstract
Understanding habitat association of animals and how they change through ontogeny is critical to predict the likely effects of habitat change on populations. We investigated how fine scale habitat associations of three common coral reef damselfish species changed among life-stages on reefs surrounding Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef. All three species showed distinct habitat selection at settlement, however the degree to which these initial associations changed through ontogeny were species specific. Pomacentrus amboinensis associated with sandy areas throughout all life-stages; Pomacentrus chrysurus settled to areas with high cover of sand and rubble, but displayed no clear habitat preferences as juveniles or adults. Pomacentrus moluccensis settled to areas with high cover of fine branching corals before shifting to areas with relatively high cover of soft corals as adults. We also compared two different approaches to estimate habitat selection; one that quantified the benthic composition within the approximate home range of individuals versus a more widely used approach of recording a single point underneath the focal individual when they were first observed. Although results were broadly similar, the benthic composition approach revealed details that was overlooked using the single point method. Decreases in the availability of any of these preferred benthic habitats may adversely affect future populations, therefore understanding habitat associations and their transitions among life stages will be crucial in predicting future reef fish communities under ongoing coral loss and habitat change. This will require to systematically study a broader range of species, integrating relevant spatial and temporal scales.
Bartl, J.; Berthelsen, A. L.; Winterl, A.; Fox-Clarke, C.; Forcada, J.; Nagel, R.; Hoffman, J.; Fabry, B.
Show abstract
Population density can influence individual predation risk in colonial breeders through shared vigilance and predator deterrence. We investigated how predator-prey interactions are shaped by population density at two Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) breeding colonies at Bird Island, South Georgia, which differ four-fold in seal density. By deploying autonomous time-lapse cameras, we captured high-resolution images at one-minute intervals throughout the breeding season. Using a YOLOv8 neural network, we identified fur seal adult males, females and pups, as well as three predator-scavenger bird species: giant petrels (Macronectes spp.), brown skuas (Stercorarius antarcticus) and snowy sheathbills (Chionis alba). Abundance patterns corresponded to the known foraging and breeding behaviours of these species. Differences in seal density between the colonies were mainly driven by adult females and their pups, but not adult males. The ratios of predatory birds to pups were markedly lower at the high-density colony, while scavenger to pup ratios remained similar. Spatial analyses revealed that predators were largely excluded from areas of high seal density, whereas scavengers overlapped extensively with pups in both colonies. This study demonstrates the value of remote observation in resolving predator-prey interactions and illustrates how density can shape predation risk in a colonial breeder.
Tsutaya, T.; Hattori, T.; Onishi, R.; Budd, C. E.; Minoshima, H.; Takahashi, T.; Hirasawa, Y.; Chiku, S.; Omori, T.; Yamazaki, K.; Yoneda, M.; Kubo, D.; Ishida, H.; Sato, T.; Schulting, R. J.; Kato, H.; Weber, A. W.
Show abstract
Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity, yet our understanding of failed invasions/translocations, instances where alien/introduced species fail to establish, remains limited. Investigating the factors behind failed invasions is critical for improving prevention and management strategies for modern biological invasions. Here, we propose a novel framework that utilizes archaeological archives to uncover evidence of failed invasions. We estimated the biological and ecological factors contributing to the failed invasion of pigs from later prehistory to recent times (299 cal BC to 1900 AD) on Rebun Island in far northern Japan by synthesizing the evidence obtained from stable isotopes, zooarchaeology, and historical documents. Despite the anthropogenic introductions of pigs into Rebun Island, pigs did not establish a feral population and disappeared after ca. 1200 AD. We identified reduced propagule pressure, abiotic resistance due to the cold climate, and decreased resources as the three key factors that contributed to the disappearance of pigs. Pigs are one of the most widespread invasive species globally, and this study represents a novel approach to studying failed invasions using archaeological data, which aligns with the framework of conservation paleobiology.
Pakhomov, A.; Dreyer, D.; Zechmeister, T.; Mouritsen, H.; Kishkinev, D.
Show abstract
Nocturnal migration is a remarkable phenomenon observed in many insect species, including moths. Migratory moths are capable of maintaining precise directional orientation during migration, as demonstrated in both laboratory and field studies, suggesting that they use multiple environmental cues for orientation and navigation. Recent studies on Australian Bogong moths revealed that these animals can use stellar cues and likely the geomagnetic field (in conjunction with local visual cues) to select and maintain population-specific migratory direction. However, the underlying orientation mechanisms used by most other migratory moths are still largely unresolved. Further, it remains unclear whether migratory moths can adjust their orientation using Earths magnetic field parameters for determining their position relative to the goal (i.e. location or map information) - an ability clearly shown in some migratory birds which respond to virtual magnetic displacements by correcting their orientation (experiments when animals are exposed to magnetic cues corresponding to other geographic locations). Here, we present results from virtual magnetic displacement experiments conducted on red underwings (Catocala nupta). In addition, we tested their orientation under simulated overcast conditions and in a vertical magnetic field to get indications whether this species relies on geomagnetic or celestial cues to maintain its population-specific migratory direction. Our results show that (1) red underwings did not compensate for virtual magnetic displacement, indicating the absence of a magnetic map; (2) they remained significantly oriented in the absence of geomagnetic information, suggesting the use of a stellar compass; and (3) there was no evidence of magnetic compass orientation in absence of any visual cues.
Fujiwara, M.
Show abstract
Conservation biology increasingly relies on ecological forecasting, yet the biodiversity components most urgently targeted by conservation, such as rare species, local assemblages, and hotspot-defined communities, are often those whose dynamics are least predictable. Understanding how predictability varies across biodiversity is therefore essential for aligning management tools with their targets. This study tests whether predictability varies along three axes, how diversity is measured, the spatial scale of observation, and the temporal forecast horizon (which together govern the effective signal-to-noise ratio of ecological dynamics), and uses these patterns to inform conservation strategies. Using long-term monitoring data from seven estuaries along the Texas Gulf Coast, forecasting performance was evaluated for Hill diversity (q = 0, 1, 2) and population-level abundance of eight dominant taxa at local (bay) and regional (coastwide) scales across near-term (1-month) and long-term (12-month) horizons. Multiple time-series model classes were assessed within a rolling-origin cross-validation framework, with performance measured as improvement in root mean square error over a seasonal naive baseline. Forecasting performance increased consistently with Hill number order, reflecting reduced stochastic variation as dominant species are emphasized. The effects of spatial aggregation differed between systems. Aggregation generally improved performance for littoral assemblages but provided limited or no benefit for demersal assemblages, consistent with differences in how predictive signals are distributed across space. Forecast skill declined from 1-to 12-month horizons, with slower decay for dominance-weighted diversity and demersal assemblages than for rare-species-weighted richness and littoral assemblages. Environmental covariates provided limited near-term gains but became an increasingly important source of predictive information at longer horizons for a subset of demersal and crustacean targets. These results define a predictability landscape structured by diversity measurement, spatial scale, and forecast horizon. Three conservation domains, stochastic, transitional, and structured, emerge from this framework, each associated with distinct predictability regimes and management strategies. Aligning conservation approaches with the predictability properties of their targets provides a principled basis for determining when forecast-based management is informative and when precautionary approaches are more appropriate.
Calderon, A. M.; Salis, A. T.; Toews, D. P. L.; Szpiech, Z. A.
Show abstract
Strong population contractions can leave a persistent genomic legacy that can influence populations long after their demographic recovery. While bottlenecks facilitate the removal of strongly deleterious mutations, the effectiveness of purging may be limited in historically small populations. The Kirtlands warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii) is a rare North American songbird with an ancestrally small population. After narrowly evading extinction, they are one of few species that have been delisted from federal protections in the USA. Despite their recovery, a previous study showed evidence for recent inbreeding and a high burden of deleterious mutations that may have not been purged despite strong bottlenecks. Historical DNA offers a unique opportunity to understand the consequences of recent demographic declines on genetic diversity. Here, we use DNA from over 100-year-old museum specimens to estimate changes in genetic load in the Kirtlands warblers pre- and post-bottleneck. We validate our results with forward-in-time genetic simulations and explore how sample size and missing data can affect estimates. Both empirical data and simulations suggest a reduced ability to purge deleterious mutations in this historically small population. Our simulations also highlight that limited sampling design and data quality can constrain the ability to detect changes.
Lamarins, A.; Waples, R. S.; Piironen, J.; Primmer, C. R.
Show abstract
1Effective population size (Ne) is a critical parameter for evaluating the evolutionary and persistence potential of endangered populations and for designing sustainable conservation strategies. Captive breeding and release programs are widely used across taxa to reduce risk of extinction when natural reproduction is insufficient or no longer possible, making it essential to assess their consequences. We used the case study of the landlocked Saimaa salmon (Salmo salar), one of the most critically en-dangered salmonid populations in Europe, with unique evolutionary significance due to its isolation from other populations since the last glaciation. Using long-term demographic data (1969-2024) from wild-caught founders of a captive breeding and release program, we estimated the effective population size under multiple scenarios of variance in reproductive success. Across scenarios, Ne ranged from 33 to 81 individuals, representing 32%-75% of the census size. Captive breeding practices aimed at equalizing parental contributions during fertilization and early life stages increased Ne by 12% compared to natural reproductive conditions. However, variation in survival after early developmental stages, typically beyond direct management control, remained a key determinant of Ne. Despite recent increases in the number of founders, the population remains genetically vulnerable due to historical bottlenecks. These results highlight that while captive breeding programs can partially mitigate genetic risks, their effectiveness depends critically on both controlled and uncontrolled sources of variance in reproductive success. Strengthening such programs may require combining breeding management with habitat restoration and, where appropriate, genetic rescue to ensure the long-term evolutionary potential of such unique and endangered populations.
Morton, B.; Thompson-Jones, D.; Adaway, K.; Sutter, K.; Matos, C.; Freer, G.; Soulsbury, C. D.
Show abstract
Urbanisation is one of the most important forms of human-driven landscape change, altering wildlife populations in unprecedented ways. In terms of behaviour, for example, urbanisation is hypothesised to increase the likelihood of observing urban populations touching, exploring, and solving novel food-related tasks compared to rural areas. However, little is known about the impact of spatiotemporal patterns of urbanisation, particularly historical patterns of change, on these behaviours. We tested this in the worlds most urbanised carnivore, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), by introducing novel food-related tasks (puzzle feeders) to 284 sites throughout Great Britain. We compared tactile and problem-solving behaviours in rural populations, recently colonised urban populations, and long-established urban populations (>40 years). Foxes from 27.4% of locations touched the tasks, foxes from 12.4% of locations solved them. Urban foxes were more likely to touch tasks compared to rural populations. Exploration time, exploratory diversity, and latency to touch tasks did not significantly differ across urban and rural locations. Urbanisation rate from 1994 to 2020 (26 years) did not significantly predict the likelihood of foxes touching or solving tasks across locations. Older urban populations - particularly from London - spent more time exploring tasks and displayed greater exploratory diversity and higher problem-solving success, despite more recent urban populations being equally likely to touch them. Collectively, our findings suggest that certain population characteristics, such as the likelihood of touching/engaging with novelty, potentially emerge early in urbanisation while other characteristics, such as greater exploratory and innovative behaviours, may emerge after long-term urban exposure across many decades. HighlightsO_LIHistorical impacts of urbanisation on wild animal behaviour are unclear. C_LIO_LIWe tested this with wild red foxes responses to novel food objects. C_LIO_LIUrban foxes were more likely to touch and exploit objects, especially from London. C_LIO_LIOlder urban foxes displayed more exploratory and innovative behaviours. C_LIO_LILength of urban exposure may help predict behavioural responses to novelty. C_LI
Allaert, R.; Van Malderen, J.; Muller, W.; Stienen, E. W. M.; Martel, A.; Lens, L.; Verbruggen, F.
Show abstract
Parental care can shape post-fledging behaviour through provisioning, guidance and social information, yet its absence may alter how young birds establish space use and habitat preferences. We tested the consequences of absent parental care by comparing, hand-reared juvenile herring gulls released without parents with wild, parent-reared conspecifics, focusing on the first two months after fledging. Wild juveniles frequently revisited their natal nest during the first month, whereas hand-reared birds rarely returned to the release site; revisits declined in both groups by the second month but remained more common in wild birds. Wild juveniles used smaller ranges that subsequently expanded, while hand-reared birds began with larger ranges that later contracted, leading to convergence. Contrary to expectation, wild juveniles occurred in areas with higher human population density than hand-reared birds. Habitat use also differed between groups and changed over time. Early on, wild juveniles concentrated activity in anthropogenic and marine habitats, whereas hand-reared birds used rural green habitats more. Later, both groups shifted away from marine areas towards rural green habitats, reducing but not eliminating between-group differences. Short-term survival, did not differ between hand-reared and wild juveniles, indicating that parental care primarily reshaped early space use and habitat choice rather than immediate survival.